A new Florida poll shows Governor Ron DeSantis’ recent move to transport migrants from Texas to the Northeast could haunt him in his reelection bid against Democrat Charlie Crist.
After months in the lead, DeSantis follows Crist by 6 points in a poll by The Political Matrix and The Listener Group. If correct, it would represent a wild swing in the race. A fixed poll of likely voters from The Listener Group in June 2021 showed that DeSantis had a nearly two-digit lead over all potential Democratic opponents, meaning the switch to sending migrants would have resulted in a nearly 16-point shift. in the polls.
By comparison, the U.S. Supreme Court’s June decision to overturn historic abortion protections Roe v. Wade the national generic vote shifted only by about 4.5 points. To date, FiveThirtyEight polls showed DeSantis to be 6 points ahead of Crist with less than 50 days until the election.
While the new poll is an outlier, Greg Fink — a conservative-leaning strategic advisor for The Listener Group — said he stands by the result and says it corresponds to a decline in support from DeSantis who began his focus on school boards that aren’t. supported his 2021 executive order to ban masks in schools.
In June, Fink’s company held the race again, finding the two pretty much even, and DeSantis’ support has started to falter in their poll ever since.
“DeSantis was nine points ahead in three polls,” Fink told News week. “Suddenly he just found out, and he hasn’t come back from it.”
DeSantis has a massive fundraising advantage over Crist, who has failed to attract significant investment from the national party in a state that has traditionally been one of the most competitive in the country.
Groups like the National Republican Senatorial Committee have begun sending out emails to raise money in support of DeSantis’ decision, indicating they are confident they are winning the messaging battle over the move, even if polls show that voters in the country were generally divided on the decision.
While Fink’s poll results were different from others, he pointed to the company’s track record: accurate calls to President Donald Trump’s state victory margin in the 2020 presidential election and Crist’s landslide victory over Nikki Fried in the Democratic primary. others a Fried Victory – as a sign that the poll should not be so easily dismissed.
“They thought we were crazy,” Fink said. “Everyone thought we were stupid. And in the end we were right.”